“Oh, oh, oh, you little boy!
How could you do that?
You are the most mischievous
little boy in Brazil”
“Mischievous Boy” (“Menino Travesso”), by Elizeth Cardoso”
A hundred years, or nearly that, have passed. In 1926, the Amazon rivers, streams, and lakes receded or dried up. The riverside dwellers walked across the bed of rivers and lakes where they once navigated and fished with canoes. Boats and floating houses got stranded on the banks more than a kilometer away from the flowing waters of the Negro, Solimões, and Amazon rivers. The Amazon River’s water level dropped to the lowest value ever recorded in Manaus up to this day! In 1926, it was inconceivable that humans could – or even felt they could – either destroy the planet (in this case, by drying up the Amazon River) or, much less, save it themselves. It was a time when no one blamed deforestation for the drought in the Amazon basin, as there was already a “culprit”: the climatic phenomenon El Niño.
Without rain, the igapó forests just seemed like dry land. The fish mortality was significant, much to the delight of countless birds. In the state of Rondônia, at the Santo Antônio Waterfall, you could almost cross the Madeira River by stepping solely on its rocks. In Manaus, stilt houses stood on dry land. Vast islands and sandy beaches emerged in the rivers. This has been the case for centuries, every three or four years, with greater or lesser impact. So, dear reader, don’t be alarmed by images on the media.
El Niño is an atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon occurring for thousands of years in the Equatorial Pacific. The waters become warmer than the historical average condition. This change has global effects on atmospheric circulation patterns, moisture transport, temperature, and precipitation, varying in different parts of the planet.
A year of rainy or dry, hotter or colder weather always favor some crops and harm others. There is no ideal climate for all agricultural activities simultaneously
The concentration of warmer ocean waters on the coast of Peru lowers fish stocks and harms fishing. Because it occurs during the Advent season in the south hemisphere, fishermen have, for centuries, given the phenomenon a name associated with the Baby Jesus. It was a sign, a labor right: El Niño wished to see them rest and spend more time with their families during the Advent of the Lord.
In many climate issues, such as with El Niño, the narratives from the enduring media consortium and its “experts” spin absolutely normal events as exceptional, then try to impose abnormal behaviors and theses on society as if they were normal.
Dear reader, don’t be appalled by catastrophic climate narratives. In the last hundred years, there have been 27 El Niño episodes of varying intensities. The phenomenon can last for one, two, or even three years and has taken place in 54 years over a century since 1923! Contrary to what the apocalyptic media and their same old “experts” claim, there is nothing dreadful or exceptional about the advent of El Niño.
The temporal records of El Niño span a century and a half, showing various types and consequences. For those with patience, you can read and observe the durations and intensities: 2018-2019, weak; 2014-2016, strong; 2009-2010, moderate; 2006-2007, strong; 2004-2005, weak; 2002-2003, moderate; 1997-1998, strong; 1994-1995, moderate; 1990-1993, strong; 1986-1988, moderate; 1982-1983, strong; 1979-1980, weak; 1977-1978, weak; 1976-1977, weak; 1972-1973, strong; 1968-1970, moderate; 1965-1966, moderate; 1963, weak; 1957-1959, strong; 1953, weak; 1951, weak; 1946-1947, moderate; 1939-1941, strong; 1932, moderate; 1925-1926, strong; 1923, moderate; 1918-1919, strong; 1913-1914, moderate; 1911-1912, strong; 1905-1906, strong; 1902-1903, strong; 1899, strong; 1896-1897, strong; 1888-1889, moderate; and 1877-1878, strong.
How intense will El Niño be and how long will it last within 2023-2024? No one knows. There have been a dozen events of strong intensity in a hundred years. The last one occurred between 2014 and 2016. In the Amazon, the water level of the Negro River dropped more than seven meters, just in October 2015. Due to transportation difficulties, classes were suspended for over 3,000 students in 29 schools in Manaus. The capital endured the smoke from over 11,000 forest fires in the Amazon for more than 20 days. With the decrease in the flow of the main Amazonian rivers, hydroelectric plants stopped turbines and operated at very low generation levels. Municipalities like Paraopeba, for example, had to distribute water with tanker trucks due to drought in their reservoirs.
Just as this year, in 2015, a much more significant heatwave struck the Midwest, Southeast, parts of the North, and the Northeast of Brazil between September and October. In more than 30 cities where the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) is present, weather stations recorded temperatures above 40°C on October 16. Palmas, capital of Tocantins, a state in the central region of the country, recorded 42.1°C that day. And Manaus had its highest temperature in 90 years: 38.9°C on September 21, 2015.
Now, the presence of the climate’s enfant terrible agitates newspapers and editorials: “El Niño threatens inflation and already worries the Central Bank,” heralds Valor Econômico. Another item on Roberto Campos Neto’s, the Central Bank president, busy agenda. “El Niño is expected to turn into Super El Niño and intensify climate effects at the end of the year,” predicts CNN. And the catastrophism is not limited to Brazil: “El Niño represents the greatest threat in decades to vulnerable species in the Galápagos,” warns the AFP agency. How mischievous!
For the pessimists, despite all the investment in technology, this time, agriculture will not escape the “pranks” of “El Niño Travieso” (Mischievous El Niño). According to them, Brazilian crops will be among the most affected by the climatic phenomenon in the whole world, they prophesy in the media.
A year of rainy or dry, hotter or colder weather always favor some crops and harm others. There is no ideal climate for all agricultural activities simultaneously. In the Northeast, irregularity and lack of rain can bring losses to the intensive crop farms in the Matopiba region. For this to happen, the phenomenon should have already been very intense by now. And that hasn’t happened yet. Crop failures for corn and beans in the semi-arid region will bring difficulties to small farmers. Are authorities planning for such contingencies?
The same lack of rain favors irrigation in the São Francisco Valley and the semi-arid region. Excessive rainfall between 2021 and early 2022 compromised 80% of the grape and mango harvests in the first semester, with estimated losses of R$60 million. While rain causes grapes to swell and burst, irrigation provides the right amount of water for the vines to develop well and produce quality fruits. Therefore, it’s better if it doesn’t rain at all.
El Niño boosts prospects for grains. Its patterns of rainfall and temperature favor soybean and corn production in the South, Southeast, and parts of the Midwest. Especially for second-crop corn, produced in winter, with increased humidity and more regular rainfall in the South and Southeast. Also, some pests, diseases, and weeds will thrive due to increased precipitation. Even though this scenario implies additional expenses with pesticides, producers have the technology required to deal with them. More rain in the South and Southeast benefits the growth and maintenance of pasture, even in winter, thus benefiting livestock.
Heavy precipitation can cause waterlogging, harming sugarcane and coffee, and hindering field machinery operation. Excessive moisture reduces the sugar concentration in sugarcane, decreases juice extraction (for ethanol and sugar), and makes harvesting and transport for milling more difficult. Despite all this, for the crop to be compromised, the phenomenon would need to be highly intense throughout 2023 and early 2024 – and that’s unlikely.
The smallest lights will always conquer darkness. On these dark nights, look up to the skies and you may see a special kind of rain – a meteor shower: the Orionids. They extend from October 4 to November 14. Its peak is on October 21: the zenithal rate reaches 23 meteors per hour. It has no relation to climate change. They are just debris left by Halley’s comet during its passage in these cosmic regions. So, hope for clear skies and look towards The Three Marys, the Orion’s Belt, from 10:45 pm. It’s beautiful to watch them in rural areas, away from urban lights, which conceal the stars. Meteors travel across the sky in elliptical lines. A more regular and less-known phenomenon compared to El Niño – and less controversial as well. As Saint John of the Cross says, to the darkness of the creature, responds the Night of Tr
Otimo é necessario artigo. Parabéns